Disclaimer:
The author is a convicted felon serving time in Idaho state prison. He is probably also quite insane. Do not take advice from him and do not feed him. There are qualified paid professionals who can help both you and him. Use them instead.
Introduction
I am planning to exit Bitcoin for one year beginning in late 2025 and repurchasing in late 2026. This paper explores target prices and transaction dates.
Pricing Trends/Projection
As I write this, Bitcoin is trading at $108,900. My prior paper discussed a four-year cycle that leads me to a prediction that Bitcoin will be trading significantly higher between September 29, 2025 and December 31, 2025. How high?
Here are the trends for each of the cycles (four so far) that Bitcoin has gone through (each four years long):
| Cycle 1 | Cycle 2 | Cycle 3 | Cycle 4 | |
| Year 1 | N/A | 5472% | 1313% | 60% |
| Year 2 | -70% | -58% | -73% | -64% |
| Year 3 | 1437% | 34% | 92% | 156% |
| Year 4 | 194% | 132% | 303% | 121% |
2025 is a year 1. The first cycle says “N/A” because cycle 1 was 2009 which is when Satoshi Nakamoto launched Bitcoin (January 4, 2009) so there was no year 4 prior to that year 1 to represent a transition. We are currently sixteen years and a few months later so we are in the same part of the four-year cycle as the launch year. 2009, 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2025 are all “year 1” in the cycle.
In any case, you can see that there are no trends in Year 2, Year 3, or Year 4. The data goes up and down. The most consistent (and therefore probably predictable) is the Year 2 decline which will be 2026 if this four-year pattern does exist.
Year 1 (2025) does disturbingly show a sharp trend toward decreasing gains. It goes from 5472% to 1313% to 60%. What is the next data point? If negative (year-end closing price below $93,000 which was the January 1, 2025 price), then I am discarding all data of the four-year cycle. It will have been falsified. I am expecting that we actually simply have a false trend here. It is only three data points and all three of the other years of the cycle show no trend with four data points each. The likelihood that the next data point is 60% again is just as likely as if it was 300%.
Below 60%, and I am not confident in having enough data to validate that the four-year cycle actually exists. So, I am projecting at least $93,000 + 60% or $148,000 as the January 1, 2026 closing price. The actual all-time high of the Year 4 transition occurred on November 8, 2024 and was about $109,000. So, the all-time high for this year 1 transition should be at least $174,400 to validate that the four-year cycle actually exists, and I should take the exit strategy.
Date Trends/Projection
I only have two examples of year 1 in my daily data. I can see that one occurred in 2013 from the January 1, 2014 closing price, but I don’t have the date. The dates of the 2017 and 2021 all-time highs are:
- December 18, 2017
- November 8, 2021
I like the shape of the curves for October – December for both of those transitions. The normal volatility of Bitcoin settles down quite a bit. It is just a very sharp upward trend with very little backtracking. You can imagine that if we are at $108,000 right now (June 11, 2025) and need to get to $174,400 by December 31, 2025…and we don’t get serious about the solid upward trend until about October 1, 2025…The trajectory during the year-end uptrend will have to be fairly solidly up.
That appears to be true. There are days that close below the prior day, but only by a percent or two. A 10% drop appears to be a pretty solid indication that the Year 2 decline year has begun. So, that is my strategy.
Strategy
September 29, 2025: I will take a rationality check, If Bitcoin is below $120,000 or so or has had significant unexpected volatility in the months until September 29, 2025, I will abort my current plans. The last test of rationality of this four-year cycle theory will be considered falsified.
Otherwise, I begin watching and tracking all-time highs. They should be every 2-7 days during this last phase. Every day that isn’t an all-time high, I will calculate the decline in relation to the last all-time high. If it is 10% or more of a decline from the last all-time high, I plan to sell my entire Bitcoin position.
That prior position will be converted to a slightly more conventional portfolio for 2026. Near the end of 2026, I will do another rationality check. Did it do what I expected? Was 2026 a general down-trend of between -65% to -73% or more? If so, I will reclaim my position in Bitcoin. It appears that I will have a realized gain of 300% or more denominated in Bitcoin.
Conclusion
That will be a first for me. First of all, Bitcoin will truly be functioning as the currency of the most reliable resort which is its destiny. My 300% gains won’t initially be visible in the U.S. dollars or any other conventional currency (or should I say “legacy” currency). I won’t see that until the following three years of the four-year cycle pass. But, I will have shorted approximately 12 Bitcoin (my total tradeable holdings while incarcerated) and turned it into 36+ Bitcoin. That is a gain measured in Bitcoin: our new currency.
It also validated that latter. The four-year cycle seems to be the only significant driver of Bitcoin value in dollars certifying that we are actually watching the decline of the dollar (also verifiable with the CPU and the price of gold) and the adoption curve of Bitcoin as a currency – with only an odd four-year cycle that is self-modulating toward zero due to its cause. Its cause us simply the Bitcoin mining reward “halving” every four years by design. The “halving” means the curve will become tighter and tighter by 50% each time until the cycle is barely noticeable.
James D. Brausch like to help people become insanely wealthy. You can humor him by sending an email to his personal address at jamesbrausch@proton.me or writing him a letter at P.O. Box 1502, Carmichael, CA 95609.